EUR/USD – Euro Edges Lower as Markets Eye Trump Press Conference

EUR/USD has edged lower in the Wednesday session, as the pair trades at 1.0520 in North American trade. It’s a very quiet day on the economic front, with no major indicators in Europe or the US. On Thursday, investors will be keeping a close eye on two key events. The ECB will publish the minutes of its December policy meeting, while the US releases unemployment claims, with the indicator expected to rise to 266 thousand.

With little happening on the fundamentals front on Wednesday, the markets will be focusing on Donald Trump’s press conference. Trump hasn’t spoken formally with the press in six months, choosing instead to send pithy comments on his Twitter account. Trump had plenty to say about the ills of the US economy on the campaign trail, but was short on solutions. He has gone on record promising tax cuts and significant fiscal spending to repair the country’s infrastructure. Trump has said he will implement protectionist policies, which has lessened investors’ appetite for risk. The markets will be hoping for more specifics about economic policy, with just over a week until Inauguration Day. The US dollar has climbed sharply since mid-November, as the US economy sails full steam ahead in 2017.

The US released key employment numbers on Friday and the markets responded with a thumbs-up, boosting EUR/USD. Wages rebounded in December, as Average Hourly Earnings climbed 0.4%, edging above the estimate of 0.3%. This marked a strong turnaround after the November reading of -0.1%. The news was not as bright from Nonfarm Payrolls, which dropped to 156 thousand, well off the estimate of 175 thousand. This marked a 3-month low, but the dollar still posted gains. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.7%, matching the forecast.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (January 11)

  • Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.9M
  • 16:00 President-Elect Trump Speech

Thursday (January 12)

  • 12:30 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 266K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, January 11, 2017

EUR/USD January 11 at 11:10 GMT

Open: 1.0552 High: 1.0567 Low: 1.0515 Close: 1.0523

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0287 1.0414 1.0506 1.0616 1.0708 1.0873
  • EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted small losses in European trade
  • 1.0506 is providing weak support
  • 1.0616 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0506, 1.0414, 1.0287 and 1.0170
  • Above: 1.0616, 1.0708 and 1.0873
  • Current range: 1.0506 to 1.0616

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing little change in the Wednesday session. Currently, long and short positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction EUR/USD will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.