USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Steady Ahead of Canadian, US Job Numbers

The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3240. It’s a busy day on the release front, with a host of employment indicators on the schedule. The US releases Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the unemployment rate. Canada will publish Employment Change and the unemployment rate, as well as Trade Balance. Given the importance of these indicators, traders should be prepared for volatility from USD/CAD in the North American session.

The US dollar retreated ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday and the Canadian currency took full advantage, gaining close to one percent. USD/CAD continued to lose ground on Thursday and dropped to a low of 1.3254, its lowest level since December 14. The Canadian dollar slumped in the last two weeks of 2016, but has since rebounded.

The US dollar retreated in the Thursday session, following the release of the Federal minutes from the December meeting. The minutes were cautious in tone, with Fed policymakers essentially saying that monetary policy in the coming months will be dictated in large part by the economic platform of the incoming Trump administration. FOMC members are concerned about higher inflation levels, given the “prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies in the coming years”. This is a clear reference to president-elect Trump’s plans to increase fiscal spending and cut taxes, which would likely result in higher inflation, something the US hasn’t had to deal with for years. Still, policymakers appear unchanged in their view that gradual rate hikes remains an appropriate monetary policy. The Fed members acknowledged that there is “considerable uncertainty” regarding future fiscal and economic programs. Many analysts are predicting another rate hike in June, but this could of course change, depending on the performance of the US economy in the first half of 2017.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (January 6)

  • 8:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate -5.1K
  • 8:30 Canadian Trade Balance. Estimate -1.6B
  • 8:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 6.9%
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 175K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Change. Estimate 4.7%
  • 10:00 Canadian Ivey PMI. Estimate 56.0

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, January 6, 2017

USD/CAD January 6 at 6:40 EST

Open: 1.3230 High: 1.3268 Low: 1.3226 Close: 1.3247

USD/CAD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2922 1.3003 1.3120 1.3253 1.3371 1.3457
  • USD/CAD posted slight gains in the Asian session. The pair has been flat in the European session
  • 1.3120 is providing support
  • 1.3253 was tested in resistance earlier and is under pressure

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3120, 1.3003 and 1.2922
  • Above: 1.3253, 1.3371, 1.3457 and 1.3589
  • Current range: 1.3120 to 1.3253

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Friday session, USD/CAD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (57%). This is indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.