Canada: IP and Raw Materials Price Index, Nov 2016

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose 0.3% in November. Higher prices for motorized and recreational vehicles and primary non-ferrous metal products were largely moderated by lower prices for energy and petroleum products. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) decreased 2.0%, mainly due to lower prices for crude energy products.

Industrial Product Price Index, monthly change

The IPPI rose 0.3% in November, following a 0.7% increase in October. Of the 21 major commodity groups, 14 were up, 2 were down and 5 were unchanged.

The rise in the IPPI in November was mainly attributable to higher prices for motorized and recreational vehicles (+1.1%) and primary non-ferrous metal products (+2.3%).

Within motorized and recreational vehicles, price gains were reported for passenger cars and light trucks (+1.0%), motor vehicle engines and motor vehicle parts (+0.7%) as well as aircraft (+1.5%). Higher prices for motorized and recreational vehicles were closely linked to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.

Price increases for primary non-ferrous metal products were widespread in November, led by higher prices for unwrought copper and copper alloys (+16.7%). Other unwrought non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal alloys (+3.4%) also increased, particularly unwrought lead and lead alloys (+8.3%) as well as unwrought tin and tin alloys (+6.7%). Unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys rose 3.4%.

Chemicals and chemical products (+0.9%) rose for a third straight month, led by higher prices for petrochemicals (+3.2%) and plastic resins (+2.1%).

Fruit, vegetables, feed and other food products rose 0.4%, primarily due to price increases for intermediate food products (+1.9%), specifically flour and other grain mill products (+2.4%) as well as grain and oilseed products, not elsewhere classified (+0.7%).

Moderating the rise in the IPPI in November were lower prices for energy and petroleum products, which fell 2.2% after rising 5.0% the previous month. Motor gasoline prices fell 5.5%. Jet fuel (-3.5%), asphalt (other than natural) and asphalt products (-1.3%) and light fuel oils (-0.4%) also recorded price declines. The IPPI excluding energy and petroleum products rose 0.6% in November.

Prices for meat, fish and dairy products (-0.3%) edged down in November. This was almost entirely due to lower prices for fresh and frozen pork (-1.2%) and fresh and frozen poultry of all types (-1.2%).

Some IPPI prices are reported in US dollars and are converted to Canadian dollars using the average monthly exchange rate. Consequently, any change in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar will affect the level of the index. From October to November, the Canadian dollar depreciated 1.4% relative to the US dollar. If the exchange rate had remained constant, the IPPI would have decreased 0.1% instead of rising 0.3%.

Industrial Product Price Index, 12-month change

The IPPI rose 1.4% during the 12-month period ending in November, following a 0.8% increase in October.

Compared with November 2015, the increase in the IPPI was largely attributable to higher prices for primary non-ferrous metal products (+12.0%), which posted their largest year-over-year gain since September 2011. The increase in this commodity group was driven by unwrought precious metals and precious metal alloys (+14.4%) and other unwrought non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal alloys (+28.3%).

Fruit, vegetables, feed and other food products (+2.0%) also contributed to the year-over-year increase in the IPPI, but to a lesser extent. Higher prices for grain and oilseed products, not elsewhere classified (+6.1%), confectionery products (+6.1%), and breads, rolls and flatbreads (+4.2%) were the main drivers for the increase in this commodity group.

The year-over-year advance in the IPPI was moderated mainly by lower prices for meat, fish and dairy products (-2.2%), particularly fresh and frozen beef and veal (-12.5%) and, to a lesser extent, fresh and frozen pork (-2.6%). On a year-over-year basis, meat, fish and dairy product prices have been falling since May 2016.

The increase in the IPPI was also offset by lower prices for energy and petroleum products (-1.1%), specifically asphalt (other than natural) and asphalt products (-7.5%), lubricants and other refined petroleum products (-3.5%) and motor gasoline (-3.7%). The IPPI excluding energy and petroleum products rose 1.7% compared with the same month last year.

Raw Materials Price Index, monthly change

The RMPI decreased by 2.0% in November following a 3.3% increase in October. Of the six major commodity groups, two were up, three were down and one was unchanged.

The decrease in the RMPI was mainly due to lower prices for crude energy products (-6.9%), specifically conventional crude oil (-7.4%). This was the first decline in conventional crude oil since July 2016 (-8.7%). The RMPI excluding crude energy products rose 1.7%.

Higher prices for metal ores, concentrates and scrap (+4.0%) moderated the decline.

Prices also rose for crop products (+2.4%). Fresh fruit, nuts and vegetables (+3.8%), canola (including rapeseed) (+4.9%) and wheat (+2.0%) rose in November.

Raw Materials Price Index, 12-month change

The RMPI increased 4.1% over the 12-month period ending in November, following a 1.5% gain in October.

The advance in the RMPI was primarily driven by higher prices for metal ores, concentrates and scrap (+14.7%), which posted their largest year-over-year increase since August 2011.

Crude energy products (+6.6%), especially conventional crude oil (+6.6%), also significantly contributed to year-over-year increase in the RMPI. The RMPI excluding crude energy products rose 2.3% year over year.

The year-over-year increase in the RMPI was offset mainly by animals and animal products (-8.7%), led by lower prices for cattle and calves (-18.9%) as well as hogs (-21.9%).

StatsCanada

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell
Dean Popplewell

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