ECB Debate May Shift as Oil Prices Drive Inflation Higher

The European Central Bank’s discussion on price stability is about to change its tone.

A record increase in Germany’s inflation rate, released on Tuesday, brought a New Year jolt to officials barely back at work and provided those critical of ever-larger stimulus with some of the hardest data yet to support their arguments. While the surge to 1.7 percent in the region’s biggest economy is mainly due to oil, its proximity to the ECB’s definition of price stability of just below 2 percent augurs a year when policy makers’ conversations may dwell more on economic numbers rather than just forecasts.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.