U.S. Q3 GDP Revised Upward on Consumer Spending

The U.S. economy expanded more than previously reported last quarter on a sunnier picture of household spending, the primary growth engine.

Gross domestic product rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate in the three months ended in September, the fastest in two years, compared with an initial estimate of 2.9 percent, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 3 percent gain.

While business investment remains a weak spot, solid labor-market progress and steady household purchases kept growth on track ahead of the holiday shopping season. The figures are likely to reinforce projections for Federal Reserve policy makers to raise the benchmark interest rate in December for the first time this year, with inflation getting closer to the central bank’s goal.

“It’s really the household that’s supporting things right now,” Brett Ryan, U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Near-term, we expect growth to continue to chug along around the 1.5 to 2 percent rate.”

GDP represents the value of all goods and services produced in the economy. Analysts’ projections for the latest growth figure ranged from 2.8 percent to 3.3 percent. This is the second of three estimates for the quarter before annual revisions in July.

The revised growth figure mainly reflected changes to the pace of consumer spending and residential investment. Household purchases, which account for almost 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate, stronger than the 2.1 percent pace initially estimated.

Automobile Registrations

The adjustment reflected data from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, as well as figures on monthly retail sales, motor vehicle registrations and electricity usage, according to the Commerce Department.

Residential investment was less of a drag, falling at a 4.4 percent pace, after an initial reading of a 6.2 percent drop, reflecting upward revisions to single-family housing and to data on dealers of building materials and garden supplies.

The upward revisions to growth were partly offset by a downward adjustment to nonresidential fixed investment, according to the Commerce Department.

Tuesday’s report offered a first look at corporate profits for last quarter. Before-tax earnings at companies increased 6.6 percent after declining 0.6 percent in the prior three-month period. Profits rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier, the first year-over-year gain after five quarters of declines. The gain in profits is a positive sign for business investment, which has been missing for a large part of the seven-year expansion.
Inventories Replenished

Inventories grew at a $17 billion annualized rate from July through September and added to growth for the first time since early 2015.

Net exports were revised up slightly and added 0.87 percentage point to GDP, the most in almost three years, compared with an initially estimated 0.83 point. The pickup was probably temporary because it was largely attributable to an increase in exports of soybeans.

Stripping out inventories and trade, the two most volatile components of GDP, so-called final sales to domestic purchasers increased at a 1.7 percent rate, compared with a previously reported 1.4 percent pace.

Corporate spending on equipment decreased at a 4.8 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, more than the initially estimated 2.7 percent and subtracting 0.28 percentage point from growth, the report showed. Those outlays had declined 2.9 percent in the prior three months.

Bloomberg

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell