USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Posts Gains, Wholesale Sales Next

The Canadian dollar has posted gains in the Monday session, continuing the upward trend we saw on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3460. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week, with no US releases on the schedule. Canada will publish Wholesale Sales, with the estimate standing at 0.3%. On Tuesday, Canada releases key retail sales numbers.

US numbers were generally positive on Thursday, as the economy continues to move in the right direction. Unemployment Claims sparkled at 235 thousand, much lower than the estimate of 257 thousand. This marked the lowest weekly claims total since 1973. CPI matched expectations at 0.4%, but Core CPI came in at 0.1% shy of the estimate of 0.2%.  The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 7.6 points, short of the forecast. On the housing front, Housing Starts remained unchanged at 1.23 million, above expectations.

U.S. Consumer Prices Post Largest Gain in 6 Months

USD/CAD posted sharp gains on Thursday, following Fed Chair Yellen’s appearance before a congressional committee. Yellen did not explicitly acknowledge that the Fed would raise rates at the December 13-14 policy meeting, but she did say that the rate hike would be “relatively soon”. Yellen make no mention of Donald Trump’s potential policies, which could include greater fiscal spending, as she reiterated that future rate hikes should be “gradual”. The odds of a rate hike next month currently stand at 95 percent. Commenting on Yellen’s testimony, Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist, summed up market sentiment –  “a rate hike in December is a done deal, barring a significant surprise in the next jobs numbers or in financial markets”.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (November 21)

  • 8:30 Canadian Wholesale Sales. Estimate 0.3%

Tuesday (November 22)

  • 8:30 Canadian Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.6%
  • 8:30 Canadian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, November 21, 2016

USD/CAD November 21 at 8:00 EST

Open: 1.3508 High: 1.3510 Low: 1.3435 Close: 1.3457

USD/CAD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3120 1.3253 1.3371 1.3457 1.3551 1.3648
  • 1.3371 is providing support
  • 1.3457 is a weak resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3371, 1.3253 and 1.3120
  • Above: 1.3457, 1.3551, 1.3648 and 1.3782
  • Current range: 1.3371 to 1.3457

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is showing short positions with a strong majority (62%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.