XAU/USD – Gold Continues to Lose Ground, Markets Await US Election Outcome

Gold has posted losses on Tuesday, continuing the downward trend which marked the Monday session. In the North American session, the metal is trading at $1275.21. Gold prices have slipped 1.0 percent so far this week. On the release front, US JOLTS Job Openings improved to 5.49 million, but this figure was well off the forecast of 5.67 million. It is Election Day in the US, as the markets anxiously wait to see who will become the next president of the United States.

In what many consider the most bitter and bruising election campaign in recent years, US voters in their millions are flocking to the polls to choose either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump as their new president. Although polls continue to point to a tight race, Clinton appears to have the upper hand as she has an easier path to garnering the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory. The most recent polls indicate that voters favor Clinton over Donald Trump by a margin of three to five percent. On the weekend, the Clinton campaign received a boost as the FBI announced that it had no reason to change its conclusion that Clinton should not face criminal charges in her use of private emails while she was secretary of state. There are different market scenarios depending on the actual outcome of the election, with the worst case scenario being a too-close-to-call result. If either candidate fails to deliver a decisive victory, the leadership vacuum and uncertainty surrounding the result could trigger higher volatility in the markets. However, if Clinton wins a clear victory, the US dollar could respond with broad gains. The election could also have a significant effect on monetary rate policy. Currently, the odds of a rate hike in December stands at 71.5 percent. However, if the election results trigger market volatility, the Federal Reserve could hold off from raising interest rates at its next policy meeting in December.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (November 8)

  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 94.6. Actual 94.9
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 5.67M. Actual 5.49M
  • All Day – US Presidential Election
  • All Day – Congressional Elections

*All release times are EDT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Tuesday, November 8, 2016

XAU/USD November 8 at 12:10 EDT

Open: 1282.46 High: 1290.69 Low: 1272.84 Close: 1275.21

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1205 1223 1245 1279 1290 1307
  • XAU/USD has posted limited movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted losses in the North American session
  • 1279 remains a fluid line. Currently, it is providing weak support
  • There is resistance at 1290
  • Current range: 1279 to 1290

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1245 and 1223 and 1205
  • Above: 1279, 1290, 1307 and 1331

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is slight gains in long positions. Currently, long positions have a substantial majority (73%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.