EUR/USD – Euro Climbs, US Manufacturing PMI Next

EUR/USD has edged higher in the Tuesday session, as the pair trades at the symbolic 1.10 line. French and Italian markets are closed for holidays. There are no Eurozone releases on the schedule. In the US, today’s highlight is ISM Manufacturing PMI.

On Tuesday, Preliminary Flash GDP climbed 0.3% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter. This matched the estimate. The eurozone economy has not been particularly strong, but on the positive side, the economy doesn’t appear to have lost ground due to the Brexit vote back in June. Still, the markets remain nervous about Brexit fallout, and negotiations between Britain and the EU are expected to be lengthy and arduous. Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI gained 0.5% in October, the highest gain we’ve since June 2014. The improvement in inflation means that the ECB has some breathing room and may opt to hold off from further monetary easing.

As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s economic indicators are closely watched, as they are considered a bellwether of economic activity in the Eurozone economy. Recent numbers have been strong, so the September retail sales report was a disappointment. The key indicator declined 1.4%, its weakest level since June 2015. In October, German consumer confidence was lower than expected. GfK Consumer Climate dipped below the symbolic ten-point mark for the first time since May. Business confidence took the opposite direction, as German Ifo Business Climate rose to 110.5 points in October, improving for a second straight month. Earlier in the month, the well-respected ZEW German economic sentiment surveys for Germany also pointed upwards. At the same time, inflation levels remain low and German Preliminary CPI was a weak 0.2%.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (November 1)

  • 13:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.3
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.8
  • 14:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.5%
  • 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 48.7
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 54.0
  • All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales

*All release times are EDT

* Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, November 1, 2016

EUR/USD November 1 at 11:35 GMT

Open: 1.0970 High: 1.1007 Low: 1.0959 Close: 1.1008

 

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0708 1.0821 1.0957 1.1054 1.1150 1.1278
  • EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted strong gains in the European session
  • 1.0957 is a weak support level
  • There is resistance at 1.1054

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0957, 1.0821, 1.0708 and 1.0616
  • Above: 1.1054, 1.1150 and 1.1278
  • Current range: 1.0957 to 1.1054

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (56%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to move to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.