It is now common for Remainers to say that it is unsurprising that there has been no adverse effect on the economy after the referendum because Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Only when we actually leave the European Union, they assert, will adverse effects appear.
To put it politely, this is somewhat disingenuous. During the referendum campaign, the Treasury, the Bank of England, the Chancellor, the IMF and Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all suggested that there would be an immediate adverse effect from a Brexit vote. You may recall that asset prices were supposed to plunge, interest rates to rise and an emergency budget was going to clobber you where it hurts.
If you believed that the long-term consequences of Brexit would be severely negative then an adverse short-term impact might indeed be expected. After all, economic actors, especially those in financial markets, are supposed to look forward. In the event, as we now know, there was only a very transitory dip in confidence and asset values – and apparently no dip in spending.