Canada: Consumer Price Index, August 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in August, following a 1.3% gain in July.

Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.7% year over year in August, after posting a 1.9% increase in July.

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in seven of the eight major components in the 12 months to August, with the shelter index contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. Smaller year-over-year gains in the food index and the recreation, education and reading index contributed the most to the deceleration in the year-over-year increase in consumer prices.

Food prices were up 1.1% year over year in August, after rising 1.6% in July. Prices for food purchased from stores recorded their smallest year-over-year gain since June 2010, up 0.4% in August. On a year-over-year basis, the meat index decreased in August, after increasing in July, and the fresh fruit index posted its first decline since December 2013. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 2.5% year over year in August, following a 2.7% gain in July.

The recreation, education and reading index was up 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in August, after posting a 1.9% gain in July. This deceleration was partly attributable to the travel tours index, which declined 5.6% in the 12 months to August, following a 0.4% rise in July. The traveller accommodation index was unchanged on a year-over-year basis in August, following a 0.7% increase in July.

The shelter index rose 1.7% in the 12 months to August, with the homeowners’ replacement cost index (+4.0%) contributing the most to the gain. Electricity prices were up 5.6% on a year-over-year basis in August, while the natural gas index declined 9.9%.

The transportation index rose 0.3% in the 12 months to August, following a 0.2% decline in July. Gasoline prices posted a smaller year-over-year decrease in August (-11.5%) than in July (-14.0%); on a monthly basis, gasoline prices were down 0.9% in August. On a year-over-year basis, the purchase of passenger vehicles index increased 5.2% in August, after posting a 5.4% gain in July.

12-month change in the provinces

In seven provinces, consumer prices rose less on year-over-year basis in August than in July. Conversely, in Nova Scotia, the CPI was up more year over year in August than in the previous month, while, in Ontario and Alberta, the gains matched those recorded in July.

In Manitoba, the CPI was up 1.1% in the 12 months to August, after rising 1.5% in July. This deceleration was partly attributable to the gasoline index, which decreased more year over year in August (-13.7%) than in July (-8.8%). The women’s clothing index also posted a larger year-over-year decline in August than in the previous month. The fresh fruit index rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in Manitoba, while it was down at the national level.

In Ontario, the CPI increased 1.5% year over year in August, matching the gain in July. The homeowners’ replacement cost index was up 6.6% in the 12 months to August, its largest year-over-year gain since October 2010. The telephone services index and the furniture index declined on a year-over-year basis in August, after posting gains the previous month.

The CPI in Nova Scotia rose 0.9% in the 12 months to August, following a 0.8% gain in July. Gasoline and fuel oil prices were down less year over year in August than in July. The year-over-year decline in the fuel oil index was the smallest since December 2014. The fresh vegetables index increased 0.6% year over year in August, after rising 7.3% in July.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index decreases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI decreased 0.1% in August, after posting no change in July.

In August, the recreation, education and reading index and the food index declined on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while the transportation index posted no change. The remaining five major components increased.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the recreation, education and reading index (-0.4%) posted the largest decline in August, while the health and personal care index (+0.5%) recorded the largest gain.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index increased 1.8% year over year in August, following a 2.1% gain in July.

The seasonally adjusted core index was unchanged on a monthly basis in August, after rising 0.1% in July.

StatsCanada

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell