What to Watch After Stock Market Trifecta

The consumer powered what little growth there was in the first half of the year, so Friday’s July retail sales is an important look at the economy’s engine at the start of the second half.

Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.5 percent, or 0.1 percent if automobiles are excluded. There is also PPI producer price inflation at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Consumer sentiment and business inventories are both at 10 a.m. Earnings are expected from J.C. Penney.

“The consumer in the second quarter was just off the charts. You can’t expect it to be as robust in the second half of the year,” said John Canally, economist and market strategist at LPL Financial. Canally said consumer spending grew at about 3 percent in the first half while GDP growth averaged 1 percent. He expects consumer spending to slow down to 2.5 percent in the second half.


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Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.