Brent Crude – Have We Broken Through Support?

Just as it looked as though we may see a correction in Brent crude as it ran into support around a key zone, it’s taken another dip lower breaking through the lower bound of the support zone and the 200-day simple moving average in the process.

Brent Daily

It’s also broken below the descending channel it had been trading within since early June, which is quite bearish in itself. Should we see a daily close below these levels, it could signal a much broader move to the downside in the coming weeks.

WTI/USD – Crude Dips Dips Below $40 on Soft US Manufacturing PMI

If this happens, the next notable area of support could come around $40.30-40.90. Below here, around $40, is also the 50% retracement of the entire move from this year’s lows to highs.

That said, given the significance of the move below the current support zone – assuming it completes it – I wouldn’t be surprised if this only offered temporary support, with the next major support level coming around $35.50-37.

Texas Shale Oil Has Fought Saudi Arabia to a Standstill

This is quite a broad range but there a number of possible support levels within it and to me, it’s not important where within this we see a rebound, if of course we are going to see one. This has previously repeatedly been an area of support and resistance and is now also the 61.8% retracement of the above move.

Brent 4hr

One thing that’s worth noting is that usually, when we see big support or resistance levels being broken – and I consider this to be one – the move after can often be quite substantial. Not only have we not seen that yet, but on the 4-hour chart the MACD and stochastic are showing signs of momentum loss. This makes me suspicious at the moment and may suggest we’re seeing a false breakout. Trading between now and the end of the session should hopefully clear things up a little more.

Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.