China Q2 GDP Risk and The Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is trading a tad lower this morning, off yesterday’s election inspired highs as a sense of normality returns to the Markets.  In a delayed response to Friday stellar US NFP, the US 10 year bond yield has moved higher, settling at 1.434 % vs. Friday’s record low of 1.366%.  In tandem, December US interest rate futures are now pricing in nearly a 30% probability of a December Hike, up almost 8 % from Friday’s  close. On the back of the higher probability factor for a December US hike, we’ve seen subtle paring back of long Australian Dollar positioning overnight.

Looking past Thursday’s Australia Jobs Report(July 14 9:30 AM SGT) , there’s a very high level of uncertainty leading up to Friday’s China Q2 GDP(July 15 10:00 AM SGT)  with  market estimates  nearing  on Mainland’s year on year floor of 6.5 %;

Also, weighing on Commodity Currencies, Oil prices came under renewed pressure overnight with WTI toppling to a two-month low. IN addition to mounting speculation that hedge funds are reducing bullish Oil bets, it’s more likely the oversupply issue rearing its ugly head. But how much the China syndrome is factoring into this equation, some insight may be forthcoming Friday.

Without question, Brexit has added another layer of economic uncertainty which could pressure Mainland policymakers into another rate cut further weakening an already staggering Yuan, even more so, if this week’s China Q2 GDP  print comes in below expectations.  Given that growth in China is expected to have  remained subdued in Q2,  we could see  a  further pullback in the Australian dollar leading up to Fridays  Data

Over the medium, China’s sliding currency will likely weigh negatively on commodity prices as investors will likely speculate that Chinese manufacturers will cut back on copper, oil and other tertiary materials they import. Given that oversupply concerns have kept a lid on commodity prices further, Yuan weakness and a possible drop in Chinese demand could ultimately weigh negatively on commodities.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Senior Currency Trader and Analyst at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and specializes in Asian currencies at OANDA. After having started his trading career with NatWest Bank, he is currently based in Singapore as a Senior Currency Trader and Analyst with OANDA, focusing on the movement of the Aussie Dollar and ASEAN Currencies. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Interest Rate Futures, Money Markets and Precious Metals. Prior to joining OANDA, he worked with organizations like Cambridge Mercantile, Nat West, Garvin Guy Butler, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes
Stephen Innes

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