USDCNY FIX -Policy Driven ?

Back to back Economic Data misses have sent the Australian Dollar reeling. Retail sales came in .2% versus .3 % expected  but with the  trade balance coming in a -2.22 billion  versus -1.7 billion expected , we’ve  seen the reduction of  weak long AUD positions that were established this morning in anticipation of a neutral RBA forward guidance

On a positive note, the China  June Caixin Services PMI came in at 52.7 vs. 51.2 prior, which is providing some counterbalance to the weak Australian domestic data and  halting the Aussie dollar slide just above the .75 handle

Finally, and perhaps more significantly, local traders are looking over their shoulder at today’s PBOC fix, the weakest setting since 2011 ,which sent the USD   tentatively bid versus USDCNH  There’s  certainly some speculation and fear that today’s aggressively weaker Yuan  fix is a PBoC policy driven move.

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

Senior Currency Trader and Analyst at OANDA
Stephen has over 25 years of experience in the financial markets and specializes in Asian currencies at OANDA. After having started his trading career with NatWest Bank, he is currently based in Singapore as a Senior Currency Trader and Analyst with OANDA, focusing on the movement of the Aussie Dollar and ASEAN Currencies. Stephen has an extensive trading experience in Interest Rate Futures, Money Markets and Precious Metals. Prior to joining OANDA, he worked with organizations like Cambridge Mercantile, Nat West, Garvin Guy Butler, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Stephen was born in Glasgow, Scotland, and holds a Degree in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Stephen Innes
Stephen Innes

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