Canada: CPI May 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% in the 12 months to May, after increasing 1.7% in April.

Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.9% year over year in May, following a 2.0% gain in April.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices were down 7.1% in May, after declining 5.8% in April. On a monthly basis, gasoline prices registered their third consecutive increase, rising 4.1% in May. This followed an 8.9% monthly gain in April.

12-month change in major components

Prices rose in all major components in the 12 months to May, with four of eight major components posting smaller year-over-year gains in May than in April. The smaller year-over-year gain in food prices in May compared with April contributed the most to the deceleration in the CPI.

Food prices posted their smallest year-over-year gain since March 2014, rising 1.8% in May, after a 3.2% increase the previous month. The index for food purchased from stores advanced 1.4% year over year in May, as prices for fresh vegetables were up less in the 12 months to May (+1.9%) than in April (+11.7%). Fresh fruit prices also decelerated in May, posting a 4.9% increase, after being up 11.0% in April. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 2.6% in the 12 months to May, following a 2.7% gain the previous month.

The recreation, education and reading index rose 1.6% in the 12 months to May, following a 2.4% gain in April. This deceleration was led by the index for travel tours, down 6.1% year over year in May, after declining 2.0% the previous month. In addition, the index for traveller accommodation increased less in May (+2.2%) than in April (+5.6%).

The clothing and footwear index was up 1.1% year over year in May, following four consecutive year-over-year declines. This turnaround was mostly attributable to the women’s clothing index, which rose 1.8% in the 12 months to May, after falling 0.5% in April. A smaller year-over-year decrease in prices for footwear also contributed to this turnaround. In contrast, prices for children’s clothing were down 2.3% in the 12 months to May, their largest year-over-year decline since August 2014.

12-month change in the provinces

In eight provinces, consumer prices rose less on a year-over-year basis in May than in April. In Manitoba, the CPI was up more year over year in May than in the previous month, while the gain registered in Alberta matched that of April.

The gasoline index decreased in the 12 months to May in all provinces. In the Prairie provinces, gasoline prices were down less year over year in May than in April, while the opposite was observed in the other provinces.

The CPI in New Brunswick rose 1.6% in the 12 months to May, after a 2.2% increase in April. The smaller year-over-year gain in consumer prices was partly attributable to the gasoline index, which posted a larger year-over-year decline in May (-10.5%) than in April (-8.5%). Prices for dairy products were down 0.6% in the 12 months to May, following a 4.1% increase the previous month.

Manitoba was the sole province to register a larger year-over-year rise in consumer prices in May (+1.7%) than in April (+1.3%). This acceleration was partly attributable to the telephone services index, which rose 3.9% in the 12 months to May, after declining 2.7% the previous month. In addition, the index for men’s clothing was down less on a year-over-year basis in May than in April.

Alberta’s CPI was up 1.5% year over year in May, matching the increase in April. On a year-over-year basis, the gasoline index was down less in May (-3.4%) than in April (-6.6%); the indexes for electricity and natural gas also registered smaller declines in the 12 months to May than in the previous month. The purchase of passenger vehicles index rose 4.6% year over year in May, contributing the most to the gain in consumer prices in Alberta.

In Ontario, the CPI was up 1.9% year over year in May, following a 2.1% increase in April. Prices for fresh vegetables rose less in the 12 months to May (+2.9%) than in April (+13.8%), a larger deceleration than at the national level. Households paid 15.4% more for electricity compared with the same month a year earlier.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in May, matching the gain in April.

In May, six of eight major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis. The food index declined, while the health and personal care index posted no change.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the transportation index (+0.6%) and the clothing and footwear index (+0.6%) recorded the largest gains in May, while the food index (-0.5%) registered the only decline.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index increased 2.1% in the 12 months to May, after rising 2.2% in April.

The seasonally adjusted core index was up 0.2% on a monthly basis in May, matching the gain in April.

StatsCanada

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell