USD/SGD – SIng Unchanged, Singapore Retail Sales Improve

USD/SGD is unchanged on Wednesday, as the pair trades at 1.3560. In economic news, Singapore Retail Sales posted a gain of 1.1%. In the US, today’s highlight is the FOMC rate statement, with the markets expecting the Fed to maintain the current benchmark rate of 0.25%. As well, the US will release PPI, with the estimate standing at 0.3%. Thursday promises to be busy, with the US releasing Unemployment Claims and CPI reports.

The markets are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which will conclude with a rate statement on Wednesday. The markets have written off a rate hike in June, while a July move remains unlikely, according to the CME Group. The chances of a June hike are just 1.9% compared to a 26.3% in May. The chances of a July hike is 17.9%, compared to 43.2% in May. The sharp drop in market sentiment for a rate hike can be attributed to the dismal US Nonfarm Payrolls report as well as some backpedaling by Fed over the past few weeks. Back in April, Fed chair Janet Yellen had renewed hopes of rate hike in the summer, when she said that she expected a rate hike in “the coming months”. Since then, Yellen has sounded more cautious, and in a recent speech she was careful to avoid a time frame regarding a rate hike. To be fair, the Fed has made a strong effort to communicate clearly with the markets, and has stated that the timing of a rate hike would be data-dependent. With the US economy posting some mixed numbers and inflation levels remaining at low levels, it should not come as a surprise that the Fed may stay on the sidelines until September or even later. Although it’s extremely unlikely that the Fed will make a move in June, the markets will be carefully monitoring the rate statement, looking for some clues regarding a July rate hike.

The Singapore dollar started the week with gains, following a strong Singapore employment report. The unemployment rate came in at 1.9% in the first quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2015. Singapore’s economy is closely linked to growth trends in China and the Chinese slowdown in 2016 has had a negative impact on the Singapore economy. There was more positive news on Wednesday, as Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, posted a strong gain of 1.1% in May. However, the Singapore dollar did not react to the strong reading.

USD/SGD Fundamentals

Wednesday (June 15)

• 1:00 Singapore Retail Sales. Actual 1.1%
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.1%
• 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate -3.4
• 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 75.2%
• 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate -0.2%
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
• 14:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
• 14:00 FOMC Statement
• 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <0.50%
• 14:30 US FOMC Press Conference
• 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases

Upcoming Key Events

Thursday (June 16)

• 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 1.1
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 267K

*All release times are EDT

USD/SGD for Wednesday, June 15, 2016

USD/SGD June 15 at 8:15 EDT

Open: 1.3556 Low: 1.3532 High: 1.3582 Close: 1.3550

USD/SGD Technical

• USD/SGD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions
• 1.3443 is providing strong support
• 1.3553 remains fluid and is currently under strong pressure in resistance
• Current range: 1.3443 to 1.3553

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3443, 1.3279 and 1.3199
• Above: 1.3553, 1.3695, 1.3828 and 1.3939

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