Official Brexit Polls Clash with Wagering Markets

On Friday, a poll for the Independent newspaper gave a massive 10-point lead to the British voting public that want to leave the European Union. Over the weekend, another poll for The Times newspaper gave leave vote a small lead. A Financial Times Poll of Polls gives leave a lead as well — 46 percent, versus stay at 44 percent.

And yet, the British pound is still above its 2016 lows, which were hit in late February shortly after David Cameron set the date for the in/out referendum at June 23 of this year.

Furthermore, while Great Britain’s vibrant wagering markets have shown the momentum build on the leave side, they still show a significant preference for remain. The latest odds on Monday — 4-7 for stay vs. 7-4 for leave — imply a Brexit probability of 36 percent.

via CNBC

Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, he established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza