Falling Output, Weak Dollar Push Oil to New Heights

Oil hit its highest level of 2016 on Wednesday, driven by a falling dollar and evidence of declining U.S. supply, putting the price on course for its strongest monthly performance since last April.

The prospect of an agreement among the world’s largest exporters to limit production, which had provided the catalyst for a 55 percent rally since mid-February, evaporated almost two weeks ago when a meeting between OPEC members and their non-OPEC counterparts ended in stalemate.

Since then, Brent has hit its highest since November and, aided by further evidence of declining output anywhere from the U.S. shale basin to the North Sea, attracted fresh investment cash.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 88 cents at $46.62 a barrel at 1135 GMT, having hit a 2016 high of $46.81, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 rose 80 cents to $44.84 a barrel.

Brent received extra support from news that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait appear no closer to restarting their jointly operated Khafji oilfield, which produced 280,000 to 300,000 barrels per day before environmental problems forced a closure in October 2014.

WTI was further bolstered after the American Petroleum Institute reported a draw of nearly 1.1 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week. Analysts had expected a 2.4-million-barrel build.

The dollar was down on the day, having fallen about 5 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY since the start of the year, even as U.S. interest rates are expected to rise.

The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee meets on Wednesday but is not expected to announce any change in rates, leaving traders to scour the post-meeting statement for any clues on the outlook.

A weaker dollar cuts the cost to non-U.S. investors of buying dollar-denominated assets such as oil futures.

Yet analysts were cautious about forecasting further gains in the near future.

“Despite speculative overheating, any news that could suggest a higher price is viewed as a good reason to buy …We meanwhile see worrying parallels to 2015, when oil prices rose sharply well into May before collapsing in the second half of the year,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Reuters

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Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell