Indices Rebound But Oil Continues to Weigh

European stocks have moved back into positive territory on Monday, having spent the early part of the trading session in the red, driven lower in part by commodity stocks are likely to continue to weigh. U.S. futures are currently in the green having also been lifted out of negative territory earlier on but may continue to waver in what could be a lower volume but volatile session, given how the day has started. This would also not be overly surprising with U.S. being in a shortened trading week in the run up to the Easter bank holiday weekend.

Oil is under pressure again today, building on Friday’s losses which came as Baker Hughes revealed that the number of oil rigs in the U.S. rose last week for the first time since December. While the rise was marginal – only one in fact – it bucks the trend of declining rigs that has offered support to oil prices this year and driven expectations that production will fall and supply will fall more in line with demand. This is the first real test of oil bulls ability to drive a broader correction in price, with this news potentially sparking oversupply fears once again.

This week is looking a little quieter when compared with the last couple but there are a number of economic reports to come that should ensure they remain quite active. There’ll be particular focus on the U.K. this week with inflation and retail sales data due, while the U.S. brings GDP and durable goods numbers later in the week.

Today we’ll get existing home sales data from the U.S. for February as well as consumer confidence survey for the eurozone. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Dennis Lockhart, a week after we learned of the central banks intentions to raise rates only twice this year, down from the four times that they indicated at the December meeting.

Economic Calendar

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Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.