NZD/USD – Kiwi Steady, NZ Trade Balance Next

NZD/USD is steady on Thursday and is trading just under the 0.67 line in the North American session. In New Zealand, Visitor Arrivals posted a strong gain of 2.9%. Trade Balance will be released later in the day. In the US, durable reports were excellent as Core Durable Goods Orders gained 1.8%, while Durable Goods Orders surged 4.9%. Unemployment Claims rose to 272 thousand, within expectations.

There was good news, for a change, from the US manufacturing sector on Thursday. US durable goods reports posted excellent gains in January. Core Durable Goods rose 1.8%, crushing the estimate of 0.2%. This marked the key indicator’s strongest showing since March 2014. Durable Goods Orders followed suit with a sharp rise of 4.9%, rebounding from the previous reading of -5.1%. This was stronger than the estimate of 3.0%. These excellent figures point to stronger domestic consumption, at a time when the US economy is grappling with a downturn in global demand, which has taken its toll on the export and manufacturing sectors. A strong US dollar, which has posted broad gains in recent months, has only exacerbated the situation. The good news was tempered by a weak employment report, as Unemployment Claims rose to 272 thousand, very close to the estimate of 271 thousand.

US fundamentals have softened in the early part of 2016, and the American consumer has become less optimistic about the economy as a result. This was underscored by CB Consumer Confidence, which slid to 92.2 points in February, well off the forecast of 97.4 points. This marked a three-month low for the key indicator. Weaker consumer confidence could well translate into a decrease in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. On Friday, the US releases Preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter, with the estimate standing at 0.4%.

NZD/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (Feb. 24)

  • 16:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals. Estimate 2.9% 

Thursday (Feb. 25)

  • 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 1.8%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 271K. Actual 272K
  • 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 3.0%. Actual 4.9%
  • 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%. Estimate 0.4%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -125B
  • 16:45 New Zealand Trade Balance. Estimate -250M

Upcoming Key Events

Friday (Feb. 26)

  • 8:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.4%

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are EST

NZD/USD for Thursday, February 25, 2016

NZD/USD February 25 at 10:50 EST

Open: 0.6662 Low: 0.6641 High: 0.6694 Close: 0.6696

NZD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.6344 0.6449 0.6605 0.6738 0.6897 0.7011
  • NZD/USD was flat in the Asian session and posted slight gains in European trade. The pair is showing limited movement in the North American session.
  • There is resistance at 0.6738
  • 0.6605 is providing support

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.6605, 0.6449, 0.6344 and 0.6233
  • Above: 0.6738, 0.6897 and 0.7011

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

The NZD/USD ratio shows short positions with a majority (53%). This is indicative of trader bias towards NZD/USD reversing directions and heading to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.