Fed Consumer Survey Shows Low Inflation Expectations

An increasingly important gauge of U.S. inflation tumbled last month to its lowest level since the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began the survey in mid-2013, in what could be taken as another warning bell for the U.S. central bank.

The New York Fed’s survey of consumers found expectations for inflation one and three years in the future fell as Americans were more cognizant of lower gasoline prices and costs of medical care and college.

One-year median expectations have fallen three months running and hit 2.42 percent in January, from 2.54 percent in December. The three-year ahead prediction was 2.45 percent last month, well down from 2.78 percent the previous month.

Respondents on the younger and older ends of the range, and those with lower education and income, drove the decline, said the New York Fed, whose survey has been increasingly cited by economists and central bankers themselves as a read on when inflation will return to a 2-percent target.

The Fed raised rates in December and aims to keep tightening. But a market selloff in January and worries over a global slowdown has some Fed officials worried that inflation, at 1.4 percent now according to their preferred measure, will not rebound as soon as desired.

The internet-based survey taps a rotating panel of 1,200 household heads, and is done by an outside organization.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza