EUR/USD – Euro Choppy Ahead of US Jobless Claims

EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Thursday, as the pair trades just above the 1.09 line in the European session. German markets are closed today, and there are no European events on the schedule. In the US, today’s key event is Unemployment Claims, with the estimate standing at 274 thousand.

The euro suffered a dismal month of November, coughing up about 450 points. However, EUR/USD has rebounded in impressive fashion, having recovered most of these losses in December. The euro has managed to post sharp gains even with the Federal Reserve rate hike, which is likely the first of a series of incremental rate hikes in 2016. However, the euro will be hard pressed to remain at current levels if inflation and growth in the Eurozone remain at very low levels.

In the US, Pending Home Sales was unexpectedly soft, posting a decline of 0.9%, compared to an estimate of a 0.6% gain. Recent housing indicators have missed expectations, pointing to weakness in the US housing sector. Meanwhile, CB Consumer Confidence sparkled in the December report, as the key indicator jumped to 96.5 points, up sharply from 90.4 points a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 93.9 points. This excellent reading followed a solid UoM Consumer Sentiment, which improved to 92.6 points, above the forecast of 92.1 points and marking a 4-month high. Consumer confidence indicators are closely monitored by analysts, as stronger consumer confidence often translates into increased consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. Strong consumer demand has been an important factor in the strength of the US economy, which led to the historic rate hike by the Federal Reserve earlier in December.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (Dec. 31)

  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 274K. Actual 287K
  • 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 50.4 points
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -54B

EUR/USD for Thursday, December 31, 2015

EUR/USD December 31 at 11:10 GMT

EUR/USD 1.0910  H: 1.0937 L: 1.0919

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0659 1.0732 1.0847 1.0941 1.1087 1.1172
  • The pair has been marked by choppiness in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 1.0941 is a weak resistance line. It was tested earlier in the day.
  • 1.0847 is an immediate support level.
  • Current range: 1.0847 to 1.0941

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0847, 1.0732 and 1.0659
  • Above: 1.0941, 1.1087, 1.1172 and 1.1278

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the EUR/USD ratio, short positions command a strong majority (62%). This is indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving downwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.