EUR/USD – Euro Near 1.09, US Pending Home Sales Next

EUR/USD is almost unchanged on Wednesday, as the pair trades at 1.0920 in the North American session. Taking a look at economic news, Eurozone inflation indicators remain weak, as Spanish CPI produced a small gain of 0.1% . In the US, today’s major release is Pending Home Sales, with the markets forecasting a respectable gain of 0.6%.

CB Consumer Confidence looked excellent in December, as the key indicator jumped to 96.5 points, up sharply from 90.4 points a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 93.9 points. This follows a solid UoM Consumer Sentiment, which improved to 92.6 points, above the forecast of 92.1 points and marking a 4-month high. Consumer confidence indicators are closely monitored by analysts, as stronger consumer confidence often translates into increased consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. Strong consumer demand has been an important factor in the strength of the US economy, which led to the historic rate hike by the Federal Reserve last week.

EUR/USD has been marked by significant volatility in the last two months of 2015. The euro plunged close to 500 points in November, in the aftermath of the ECB policy meeting shocker where the ECB held off from implementing further easing moves, despite hints from ECB head Mario Draghi that he was prepared to take drastic action to kick-start the moribund Eurozone economy. However, the euro has shown resilience, recovering all of these losses in the month of December, even with the Fed rate hike which has bolstered the US dollar against  most major currencies. If this trend continues into the New Year, we can expect a busy month of January from the euro.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (Dec. 30)

  • 8:00 Spanish Flash CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.0%.
  • 9:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Estimate 5.2%. Actual 5.1%
  • 9:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Estimate 1.3%. Actual 1.4%
  • 10:19 Italian 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 1.59%
  • 15:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.6%
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.8M

EUR/USD for Wednesday, December 30, 2015

EUR/USD December 30 at 11:00 GMT

EUR/USD 1.0922  H: 1.0944 L: 1.0919

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0659 1.0732 1.0847 1.0941 1.1087 1.1172
  • The pair has shown slight choppiness during the Asian and North American sessions.
  • 1.0941 is a weak resistance line. It was tested earlier in the day.
  • 1.0847 is an immediate support level.
  • Current range: 1.0847 to 1.0941

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0847, 1.0732 and 1.0659
  • Above: 1.0941, 1.1087, 1.1172 and 1.1278

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the EUR/USD ratio, short positions command a strong majority (62%). This is indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving downwards.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.