USD/JPY – Unchanged as Yen Continues to Hug 120

USD/JPY is steady on Monday, as the yen trades at 120.20 in Monday’s North American session . In economic news, Japan published this week’s indicators on Sunday. Retail Sales disappointed with a reading of -1.0%, and Preliminary Industrial Production posted an identical figure. There are no US releases on Monday.

Japanese Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, disappointed in November, posting a decline of 1.0%, compared to a strong gain of 1.8% a month earlier. The markets had expected more, as the estimate stood at -0.1%. There was no relief on the manufacturing front, as Preliminary Industrial Production posted a reading of -1.0%, weaker than the forecast of -0.4%. The yen has rebounded in December, gaining about 300 points and recovering the losses sustained in November.  The BOJ made some adjustments to monetary policy at its December policy meeting, but has been reluctant to make some significant easing moves. If the lackluster Japanese economy does not improve soon, the BOJ will likely have to take implement further monetary easing, which would likely send the yen to lower levels.

In the US, November’s durable goods reports were unimpressive, underscoring weakness in the US manufacturing sector. Core Durable Goods slipped by 0.1%, short of the forecast of a 0.1% gain. Durable Goods came in at 0.0%, but this beat the estimate of -0.6%. Housing numbers also disappointed, as New Home Sales dipped to 490 thousand, well off the estimate of 507 thousand. This reading comes on the heels of Existing Home Sales, which posted a weak reading of 4.76 million, its worst performance since April 2014. There was some good news from consumer indicators, as the UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 92.6 points, above the forecast of 92.1 points and marking a 4-month high.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

Sunday (Dec. 27)

  • 23:50 Japanese Retail Sales. Estimate -0.1%. Actual -1.0%
  • 23:50 Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -1.0%

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

USD/JPY for Monday, December 28, 2015

USD/JPY December 28 at 15:25 GMT

USD/JPY 120.36 H: 120.64 L: 120.22

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
115.45 116.88 118.53 120.40 121.50 122.40
  • USD/JPY has been uneventful in the Asian and European sessions
  • 120. 40 was tested in resistance earlier and is a weak line.
  • 118.53 is providing support
  • Current range: 118.53 to 120.40

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 118.53, 116.88 and 115.45
  • Above: 120.40, 121.50, 122.40, and 123.74

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the USD/JPY ratio, long positions continue to command a solid majority (65%), which is indicative of strong trader bias towards the pair moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.