The supply of oil from countries outside of the OPEC will contract next year as world oil demand rises, the production cartel said in its latest monthly report.
Indicating that the 12-country oil producing group led by Saudi Arabia could be winning the fight to retain market share in the face of its rivals outside the organization, the group said that non-OPEC oil supply growth was expected to be “much lower” in 2015 and 2016 after “the tremendous growth of 2.23 million barrels a day achieved in 2014.”
While non-OPEC oil supply was estimated to grow by 1.00 mb/d in 2015 to average 57.51 mb/d, it forecast a contraction in non-OPEC oil supply in 2016.
“For 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is now expected to contract by 380,000 barrels a day to average 57.14 mb/d, following a downward revision of 0.25 mb/d,” from last month’s report.
Just as the supply from non-members was forecast to dwindle, OPEC raised its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2015, predicting it will rise by 1.53 million barrels per day (mb/d) to average around 92.88 mb/d – up 30,000 barrels from the previous month’s forecast – and for 2016.
The organization predicted oil demand would increase by around 1.25 mb/d to average 94.14 million barrels a day next year, upping its forecast mainly as a result of “better-than-expected consumption in Europe and Other Asia,” an area including India, Indonesia and Thailand among other Asian economies but not China.