USD/SGD is steady on Wednesday, as the pair trades slightly under the 1.41 line in the North American session. On the release front, Singapore GDP surged 1.9%. In the US, it was a busy day ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Unemployment Claims and Core Durable Goods posted solid readings, but UoM Consumer Sentiment missed expectations.
The Singapore dollar continues to post gains against its US counterpart. The Sing was buoyed by an excellent Singapore GDP reading of a 1.9% gain in the third quarter. This easily beat the estimate of 0.3% and was a sharp improvement from the Q2 reading of -2.6%. Earlier in the week, Singapore CPI, the primary gauge of inflation, posted a decline of 0.6% in October, a near repeat of the 0.5% decline a month earlier.
It’s been a mixed day for key US releases. Unemployment Claims plunged to 260 thousand, well off the estimate of 273 thousand. There was more good news from Core Durable Goods, which rebounded with a strong gain of 0.5%, matching the forecast. UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 91.3 points, but the markets were overly optimistic, as this figure fell short of the forecast of 93.2 points. This consumer confidence indicator comes on the heels of CB Consumer Confidence, which dropped to 90.4 points, nowhere close to the estimate of 99.3 points. These weak consumer confidence readings could raise concerns, as soft consumer confidence numbers could translate into weaker consumer spending, which is a key driver of economic growth.
There were no surprises from US Preliminary GDP in the third quarter. The revised GDP report came in at 2.1%, very close to the Advanced GDP reading of 2.0%. Although these numbers pale in comparison to the blistering 3.7% we saw in Q2, they nonetheless point to respectable growth by the US economy in a difficult global environment. The positive GDP release means that a rate hike at the December policy meeting remains a strong possibility.
The guessing game continues regarding a rate move by the Federal Reserve, which would be the first such step in 10 years. The Fed hinted at a rate hike in its October policy statement, and the markets have been abuzz ever since. Last week, New York Fed President William Dudley said there is a “strong case” for a rate hike in December as long as economic data remains strong. At the past two policy meetings, the vote against a rate hike was 9-1, but that clearly will not be the outcome at the December meeting. With the US economy showing improvement and employment and consumer indicators pointing upwards, the markets appear prepared for a small hike of 0.25% or 0.50%, and there is a growing view that modest, incremental moves would not cause unwanted turbulence on the global markets. One fly in the ointment is that of persistently weak inflation levels, as the Fed has repeatedly stated that inflation is a key consideration in any decision to raise rates. With the critical Fed meeting only a few weeks away, every key indicator and comment from a Fed member will be under close scrutiny from the markets.
Wednesday (Nov. 25)
- 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%
- 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 273K. Actual 260K
- 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.0%
- 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.6%. Actual 3.0%
- 13:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.1%
- 13:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
- 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.8%
- 14:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 55.2 points. Actual 56.5 points
- 15:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 500K. Actual 495K
- 15:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 93.2 points. Actual 91.3 points
- 15:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Actual 2.7%
- 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.2M. Actual 1.0M
- 17:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 5B
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
* All times are GMT
USD/SGD for Wednesday, November 25, 2015
USD/SGD November 25 at 15:50 GMT
USD/SGD 140.81 H: 140.96 L: 140.16
- USD/SGD posted strong losses in the Asian session, but rebounded in the European and North American sessions, erasing most of the losses.
- 1.4139 is an immediate resistance line.
- 14073 was tested in support earlier and is a weak line. It could see further action in the North American session.
- Current range: 1.4073 to 1.4139
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.4073, 1.3937 and 1.3810
- Above: 1.4139, 1.4248, 1.4300 and 1.4395
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