Canada: Consumer Price Index, October 2015

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in the 12 months to October, matching the increase in September.

Lower energy prices continued to moderate the year-over-year rise in the CPI, led by the gasoline index, which was down 17.1% in the 12 months to October.

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in seven of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis in October, with the rise in the CPI led by higher prices for food. Increases in the shelter index and the household operations, furnishings and equipment index also contributed to higher consumer prices. The transportation index, which includes gasoline, recorded its 12th consecutive year-over-year decline.

Food prices were up 4.1% year over year in October, after increasing 3.5% in September. This acceleration was attributable to higher prices for food purchased from stores, which increased 4.6% year over year in October, after rising 3.9% the previous month. Prices for fresh fruit increased more in the 12 months to October (+13.0%) than in September (+8.5%). In addition, the dairy products index increased year over year in October, following a decrease the previous month. Prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.7% year over year.

The index for recreation, education and reading rose 1.9% in the 12 months to October, following a 2.5% increase in September. This deceleration was partly attributable to the traveller accommodation index, which was up 4.8% year over year in October, after rising 10.8% the previous month.

The shelter index was up 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in October, matching the rise in September. The natural gas index decreased 10.9% in the 12 months to October, after declining 4.4% the previous month. Conversely, property taxes rose 3.0% on a year-over-year basis, after being up 2.2% year over year since last October.

The transportation index declined 3.2% year over year in October, after decreasing 3.5% in September. This smaller year-over-year decline was mainly attributable to gasoline prices, which fell 2.0% on a month-over-month basis in October, a smaller monthly decrease than the index recorded in the same month last year.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in nine provinces in the 12 months to October. Manitoba posted the largest increase, followed by Saskatchewan and Alberta. The CPI in Prince Edward Island registered its 11th consecutive year-over-year decline.

The CPI in Manitoba rose 1.9% in the 12 months to October, after increasing 1.3% in September. Gasoline prices declined less on a year-over-year basis in October (-10.4%) than in September (-18.2%). The children’s clothing index was up 7.5% in the 12 months to October, after decreasing 2.1% in September.

In Prince Edward Island, the CPI was down 0.8% year over year in October, matching the decrease in September. The fuel oil index posted a smaller year-over-year decrease in October (-21.9%) than in September (-31.3%). In contrast, the clothing index and the personal care supplies and equipment index decreased more on a year-over-year basis in October than the previous month.

Nova Scotia’s CPI increased 0.3% in the 12 months to October, after posting no change in September. This acceleration was mainly attributable to the fuel oil index, which was down less on a year-over-year basis in October (-22.4%) than the previous month (-26.8%). In addition, the furniture index was down 1.7% year over year in October, compared with a 9.4% decline in September.

Quebec was the lone province to record a smaller year-over-year increase in its CPI in October (+0.7%) than in September (+1.0%). Prices for footwear in the province declined 2.4% in the 12 months to October, after increasing 5.5% the previous month. In addition, the purchase of passenger vehicles index posted a smaller year-over-year increase in October (+0.5%) than in September (+1.2%).

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in October, following a 0.2% decrease in September.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the largest increase in October was recorded in the food index (+0.5%), followed by the shelter index (+0.3%).

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index was up 2.1% in the 12 months to October, matching the increase in September.

The seasonally adjusted core index was up 0.2% on a monthly basis in October, after increasing 0.1% in September.

StatsCanada

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell