EUR/USD – Flat Ahead of FOMC Statement

EUR/USD continues to have a sleepy week, as the pair trades at 1.1060 in the European session. Today’s key event is the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy statement. In the Eurozone, German Import Prices missed expectations, while German Consumer Climate was very close to the forecast. On Thursday, the US releases two key events  – Advance GDP and Unemployment Claims.

The euro was hammered last week by the ECB hints about further easing, but it’s been all quiet this week, with almost no movement from the continental currency. Will we see some volatility after the FOMC statement? The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates, but any hints about a hike could send the US dollar sharply higher. What the markets would really appreciate is some clarity about its monetary plans. Gone are the days of the indecipherable Fedspeak from Alan Greenspan, whose statements looked like they were written in English but were ambiguous and obtuse in the extreme. At the same time, the current Federal Reserve has failed to communicate effectively with the markets, which continue to receive conflicting signals from Fed policymakers regarding the timing of a rate hike. These mixed messages are no accident, but rather reflect the divisions between voting Fed members with regard to a rate hike. This has led to volatility in the currency markets based on the public remarks of Fed members, even though such comments may be no more than the personal view of that individual, and do not represent actual Fed policy.

Thursday could also be a busy day for the markets, as the US releases two key events – Advance GDP and Unemployment Claims. The estimate for Advance GDP for the third quarter stand at 1.5%, compared to a Final GDP for Q2 of 3.9%. A reading below the forecast could hurt the US dollar. Unemployment Claims, which came in at 259 thousand last week, has now beaten the estimate for three straight weeks, but are expected to rise to 264 thousand.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (Oct. 28)

  • 7:00 German Import Prices. Estimate -0.2%. Actual -0.7%.
  • 7:00 GfK German Consumer Climate. Estimate 9.5 points. Actual 9.4 points.
  • Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 12:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -64.9B
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 3.7M.
  • 18:00 FOMC Statement
  • 18:00 Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <0.25%

Upcoming Key Events

Thursday (Oct. 29)

  • 12:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 1.6%
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 264K

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


EUR/USD for Wednesday, October 28, 2015

EUR/USD October 28 at 11:00 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1063 H: 1.1068 L: 1.1025


EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0847 1.0941 1.1017 1.1105 1.1214 1.1296
  • EUR/USD has been flat in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 1.1017 is providing weak support.
  • 1.1105 is an immediate resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.1017 to 1.1105

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1017, 1.0941 and 1.0847
  • Above: 1.1105, 1.1214, 1.1296 and 1.1392


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio has shown a slight move towards long positions on Tuesday. Long positions currently have a slight majority (54%), which points to trader bias towards the pair moving higher.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.