Canada Consumer Price Index, September 2015

Released: 2015-10-23

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in the 12 months to September, after increasing 1.3% in August.

The smaller year-over-year increase in the CPI in September compared with August was mostly attributable to an 18.8% year-over-year decline in gasoline prices in September, following a 12.6% decrease the previous month.

Prices were up in seven of the eight major components on a year-over-year basis in September, with the rise in the CPI led by higher prices for food. Increases in the household operations, furnishings and equipment index and the shelter index also contributed to higher consumer prices. The transportation index, which includes gasoline, recorded its 11th consecutive year-over-year decline.

Consumers paid 3.5% more for food in September compared with the same month a year ago. Prices for food purchased from stores were up 3.9% year over year in September. Prices for fresh vegetables increased more on a year-over-year basis in September (+11.5%) than in August (+7.7%). The meat index rose 4.4% year over year in September, following a 6.3% increase in August. In the 12 months to September, prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.7%.

The index for recreation, education and reading increased 2.5% in the 12 months to September, after rising 2.1% the previous month. This acceleration was led by the traveller accommodation index, which was up 10.8% on a year-over-year basis in September, after increasing 7.4% in August. Tuition fees were up 2.8% in September compared with the same month a year earlier.

The clothing and footwear index was up 1.2% in the 12 months to September, after rising 2.1% the previous month. This deceleration was partly attributable to the men’s clothing index and children’s clothing index, which registered smaller year-over-year increases in September than in August. Additionally, the index for women’s clothing recorded no year-over-year change, after posting an increase the previous month.

The transportation index declined 3.5% in the 12 months to September, after decreasing 2.3% in August. This larger year-over-year decrease was mainly attributable to gasoline prices, which fell 7.9% on a month-over-month basis in September, a larger monthly decrease than the index recorded in the same month the previous year. In contrast, the purchase of passenger vehicles index was up 1.6% in the 12 months to September, after increasing 0.6% in August.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose in eight provinces in the 12 months to September. Saskatchewan posted the largest increase, followed by Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia. The CPI in Prince Edward Island registered its 10th consecutive year-over-year decline.

In every province, prices for gasoline decreased more on a year-over-year basis in September than in August.

The CPI in Saskatchewan was up 1.4% in the 12 months to September, after increasing 1.9% in August. The index for passenger vehicle insurance premiums recorded a smaller year-over-year increase in September (+0.3%) than in August (+7.7%). Traveller accommodation prices rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September, a smaller increase than at the national level.

In Prince Edward Island, the CPI decreased 0.8% in the 12 months to September, after declining 0.1% the previous month. This larger year-over-year decrease was partly attributable to the fuel oil index, which declined 31.3% in September, following a 23.9% decrease in August. The basket weight of fuel oil is 10 times greater in Prince Edward Island than in Canada as a whole.

British Columbia was the sole province to show a larger year-over-year increase in its CPI in September (+1.3%) than in August (+1.2%). Prices for men’s clothing were up 5.1% in the 12 months to September, after falling 0.2% the previous month. In addition, the video and audio subscription services index was up 5.0% on a year-over-year basis in September, after rising 0.5% the previous month.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index decreases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI decreased 0.2% in September, after posting no change in August.

In September, two of the eight major components decreased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis. The seasonally adjusted index for shelter posted no change.

The largest decrease in September was recorded in the seasonally adjusted transportation index, which fell 1.4%. The seasonally adjusted clothing and footwear index (-0.1%) also declined.

Conversely, the seasonally adjusted food index and the seasonally adjusted recreation, education and reading index both rose 0.4%.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index was up 2.1% in the 12 months to September, matching the increase in August.

The seasonally adjusted core index was up 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, after increasing 0.2% in August.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell