Gold Steady as US Jobless Claims Remains Sharp

Gold is showing little movement on Thursday, the spot price is $1164 per ounce early in the North American session. In economic news, US Unemployment Claims beat expectations for a second straight week, coming in at 255 thousand. On the housing front, Existing Home Sales impressed with a strong surge, improving to 5.55 million, well above expectations.

There was positive news out of the US on Thursday, as Unemployment Claims, a key release, came in at 259 thousand, beating the estimate of 266 thousand. This was slightly higher than the previous reading of 255 thousand, but marked the third straight week that the indicator beat the forecast. The four-week moving average of claims, which reduces the volatility of the weekly jobless reports, is currently at its lowest level since 1973. These figures point to a stronger labor market, but the next big test comes in early November, with the publication of Nonfarm Payrolls. Meanwhile, Existing Housing Sales had a banner September, improving to 5.55 million, crushing the estimate of 5.38 million. We’ll get a look at additional housing indicators next week.

Recent US data has not been has strong as hoped, with key numbers sending a mixed message about the health of the economy. This has reduced the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2015. The markets remain frustrated about the Fed’s lack of communication with the markets, as FOMC members continue to send out contradictory messages about the Fed’s plans. Still, an improvement in US numbers, especially employment and consumer indicators, could quickly revive speculation about a rate hike and boost the US dollar. Next week promises to be interesting, as the Federal Reserve issues a policy statement after its meeting. This will be followed by the release of the Advance GDP report, a market-mover event.


XAU/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (Oct. 22)

  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 266K
  • 13:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.38M. Actual 5.55M.
  • 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.0%. Actal -0.2%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 89B

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


XAU/USD for Thursday, October 22, 2015

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD October 22 at 14:15 GMT

USD/CAD 1164 H: 1170 L: 1161


XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1134 1151 1162 1180 1192 1204
  • XAU/USD has shown little movement on Thursday, after modest losses a day earlier.
  • 1162 was tested earlier in the day and is a weak support line.
  • On the upside, 1180 has some breathing room as the pair trades at lower levels.
  • Current range: 1162 to 1180

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1162, 1151 and 1134
  • Above: 1180, 1192 and 1204

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio remains close to an even split between long and short positions on Thursday, indicative of a lack of trader bias regarding which direction gold will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.