Is the UK Now More Likely to Leave the EU?

The long saga of U.K. membership of the European Union may end with a historic and traumatic as pro-Europeans face an onslaught from the Eurokeptic right – and now left.

The possibility of so-called Brexit appears to have been discounted by investors at the moment – but as the respective campaigns to leave or stay ramp up between now and whenever the vote happens (by the end of 2017), they are likely to take more notice.

On Tuesday, French bank Societe Generale made the risk of Brexit one of its “key calls” for investors, and said it would recommend reducing holdings in the pound and in U.K. shares amid the uncertainty prompted by the referendum.

After an era where U.K. politicians chased the center ground and those who raised the prospect of leaving the EU were regularly dismissed, those at the center now risk being confronted by an anti-EU pincer movement from both left and right.

Left-wing swing

The Labour Party has been pro-EU membership for decades, and was expected to broadly support the Stay campaign for the referendum. Yet with an influx of new members, a new, more Euroskeptic leader in Jeremy Corbyn, and the U.K.’s trade unions waging more power within the party than for decades, Labour cannot be automatically assumed to be on the EU side any more.

“We can’t just give Cameron a blank cheque whatever he comes back with: we have to be fighting for the Europe that we want to see. He talked about…the importance of the social chapter, the EU working time directive,” a Labour Party spokeswoman said of Corbyn’s position on the EU.


Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.