EURUSD – Friday Spike Reinforces Bearish Outlook

The euro remains bearish against the dollar despite another spike occurring in the pair on Friday. The rally was cut short around 1.11 which, in my view, reinforces the bearish argument for this pair.


For one, the pair failed to break above last Monday’s high of 1.1130. This level coincides with both the descending trend line – 14 July 2014 highs – and the 144-day simple moving average. The sell-off into the end of the week is also not really a characteristic of a market that is particularly bullish.

While further consolidation may following in the days or even weeks ahead, including occasional spikes like those seen recently, the bullish case in this pair seems difficult to justify.

Moreover, the fundamentals offer further support for the bearish case given the divergence between the monetary outlooks of the two central banks. The European Central Bank is likely to continue its quantitative easing program until at least September 2016, while the Fed seems intent on raising interest rates this year.

With the pair appearing to remain in consolidation mode for now, resistance remains around 1.11 and may come earlier as the trend line closes in. Below, support is being found around 1.09-1.0925. If this is broken, then 1.0870 could be an area of interest, followed by 1.0810-1.0820.


Open Position Ratios

Historical Position Rations

The above tools and others can be found in OANDA Forex Labs.

Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.