The July employment report in the coming week might in some ways be like a jump ball in the final minutes of a tied basketball game.
That’s because there’s an atmosphere of August madness around the final few pieces of data the Fed has left to consider, before it holds its rates meeting in September. Those would be first and foremost the July jobs report on Friday and the August employment report Sept. 4. Secondary to those would be retail sales and consumer price inflation data.
“I think we’ve moved into this environment where we’re super, super data dependent. The markets can’t figure out whether the Fed wants to go in September,” said Jens Nordvig, head of G10 currency strategy at Nomura. “We have to figure it out soon because we’re running out of data. There’s payrolls, and then retail sales, and I think after those two, the markets will come to a conclusion one way or the other.”