The countdown to the giant Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has begun, with a July 31 deadline looming on the trade agreement that covers 12 countries and 40 percent of the global economy.
Trade representatives kicked off talks in Hawaii on Tuesday and will work towards a—hopefully—successful conclusion at the end of this week. The deal has been five years in the making but contrary to previous talks, optimism is high for an agreement this time around.
“Sentiment is very positive. I’ve spoken to negotiators from the U.S. and four other countries and people are excited, they really see the end in sight,” Tami Overby, senior vice-president for Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC), told CNBC on Tuesday.
CNBC takes a look at the likely TPP winners and losers:
“The biggest winner will be Vietnam as foreign investors start to flood the country. Number two might be Malaysia and number three is Japan,” Deborah Elms, executive director at Asia Trade Centre, told CNBC on Tuesday.
Non-TPP members are expected to bear the brunt of losses due to the impact of trade diversion, where countries prefer to export to their FTA partners rather than non-participating countries.
“The trade diversion effect of the TPP fall mainly on China,” PIEE said, adding that exports would be 1.2 percent lower in the case of a deal compared to without.