NABE Survey Forecasts Weaker US Growth in Q2

U.S. economic growth in the second quarter will be far weaker than previously expected and it will prevent the pace of growth from exceeding last year’s 2.4 percent, according to a forecast by a group of U.S. business economists.

Growth is expected to accelerate significantly in the third quarter, but “sluggish” conditions in the first three months of the year will persist into the second quarter and drag down average growth for the year, a survey by the National Association for Business Economists said Monday.

The survey of 47 economists from companies, trade associations and academia was conducted from May 8 to May 20.

A growing number of economists in the survey believe that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates in the third quarter. Many had expected a second-quarter increase until the year started off so slowly.

The labor market will improve at a slower rate also, according to the survey, but job growth will remain “robust.” Economists now believe payrolls will grow by 217,000 per month in 2015, down from an earlier forecast of 251,000. Last year the economy added 260,000 jobs per month on average.

via CNBC

Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza