Amid a slowing economy and wobbly financial markets, investors have tamped down their expectations for when the Federal Reserve will start hiking interest rates. They may have further to go.
Despite some recent saber rattling from Fed officials, the potential for 2015 to pass by without monetary policy tightening becomes greater when looking inside some of the metrics the central bank policymakers use when formulating their decisions.
Take the unemployment rate. Much debate has occurred over the years regarding what is the “real” rate of unemployment—whether it’s the headline rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics trumpets each month when it releases the nonfarm payrolls report, or if it is a number buried far deeper in the report that provides a broader picture.