AUD/USD – Unchanged After Weak PPI

AUD/USD is showing little movement on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.78 range in the European session. Taking a look at today’s releases, Australian PPI dipped lower to 0.1%. Australian Private Sector Credit matched the forecast with a 0.5% gain. In the US, today’s major events are Advance GDP and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Australian inflation remains at low levels. The Producer Price Index edged down to 0.1%, short of the forecast of 0.3%. Earlier in the week, Australian CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, dropped to just 0.2% in Q4, shy of the forecast of 0.3%. This was the index’s weakest gain in two years. However, there was much better news from Trimmed Mean CPI, which posted a strong gain of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 0.5%.

US key numbers were a mix on Thursday. This was underscored by Unemployment Claims, which plunged to 265 thousand, down from 307 thousand a week earlier. This marked the indicator’s lowest level since April 2000. The news was not as positive from Pending Home Sales, which declined 3.7%, its worst reading in a year.

The Federal Reserve reiterated in its policy statement on Wednesday that it would be “patient” regarding the timeline for a raise in interest rates, which have been close to zero since 2008. However, the Fed also noted that the US economy was expanding at a “solid pace” thanks to the robust labor market. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates sometime during the year, so the Fed rate watch is sure to continue as the markets look for clues as to when the Fed will make a move.

AUD/USD for Friday, January 30, 2015

AUD/USD January 30 at 12:10 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7769 H: 0.7797 L: 0.7731

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7403 0.7582 0.7684 0.7799 0.7904 0.8081

 

  • AUD/USD has shown little movement on Friday. The pair continues to put pressure on resistance at 0.7799.
  • 0.7799 is a weak resistance line. 0.7904 is stronger.
  • 0.7684 is an immediate support level.
  • Current range: 0.7684 to 0.7799

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
  • Above: 0.7799, 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150 and 0.8214

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Aussie has posted very small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian PPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 00:30 Australian Private Sector Credit. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%.
  • 13:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 3.0%.
  • 13:30 US Advance GDP Price Index. Estimate 0.9%.
  • 13:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.6%.
  • 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 57.7 points.
  • 15:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.5 points.
  • 15:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

OANDA MarketPulse Nominated for FXstreet’s 2015 Forex Best Awards

We are pleased to share the news that FXstreet – Europe’s oldest forex trading portal, published online in more than 50 countries – has nominated your MarketPulse team for the “Best Sell-Side Analysis Team” award again this year (the winners in 2014!), as well as in the category of “Best Analysis”.

The annual Forex Best Awards highlight the best analysis, educational content, and contributors on its website from the preceding year. It is a tremendous honour to be considered for this industry accolade out of the thousands of top tier banks and financial blogs online.

However, in order to win these important awards, we need your help – we need you to vote for us.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.