AUD/USD – Aussie Stable in Thin Holiday Trading

AUD/USD is calm on Monday, as the pair trades in the low 0.79-range. The Aussie is coming off a terrible week, in which it lost over 300 points against the US dollar. On the release front, Australian markets are closed for Australia Day. There are no releases out of the US on Monday, so traders can expect a quiet day from the pair.

A tumultuous week in the currency markets spelled disaster for the Australian dollar, which tumbled more than 300 points, falling below the key 0.80 level. AUD/USD is currently at its lowest level since July 2009, and pair’s slide could continue. With the Bank of Canada cutting rates and the ECB embarking on a huge QE program, there is growing speculation that the RBA will follow suit and lower its current rate of 2.50%. Although the rate is low by Australian standards, it is well above the benchmark rates of most developed nations. The RBA has stated that it would prefer the Aussie trade around US 75 cents in order to boost sluggish growth. The RBA is unlikely to lower rates in February, but we could see a move in the near future if the economy does not improve.

AUD/USD for Monday, January 26, 2015

AUD/USD January 26 at 15:35 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7919 H: 0.7928 L: 0.7871

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7684 0.7799 0.7904 0.8081 0.8150 0.8214

 

  • AUD/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in the European session, breaking above resistance at 0.7904. AUD/USD remains unchanged in North American trade.
  • 0.7904 has reverted to a support role and is a weak line. 0.7799 is stronger.
  • 0.8081 is a strong resistance line.
  • Current range: 0.7904 to 0.8081.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7904, 0.7799. 0.7684 and 0.7528
  • Above: 0.8081, 0.8150, 0.8214, 0.8315 and 0.8456

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Monday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

* There are no releases out of Australia or the US on Monday.

 

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This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.