Conventional wisdom suggests commodity exporters will take price declines on the chin, but Morgan Stanley expects they’ll benefit most.
It’s all about curing the Dutch Disease, Morgan Stanley said in a note last week, referring to the negative economic impact of increasing natural resources investment at the expense of other sectors. “If left uncured, the net effect is usually a decline in productivity that tends to hurt growth over longer periods,” the bank said.
“Commodity exporters face a difficult transition, some a recession, and even after that, a few could lapse back into mediocre growth and low productivity,” it said. But it added, “commodity price falls of this magnitude can completely change the structure of commodity-exporting economies, while no such dramatic transformation occurs among commodity importers.”
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