USD/CAD – Little Movement Ahead of US, Canadian Job Data

The Canadian dollar is steady on Friday, as USD/CAD trades at the 1.14 line. We could see some strong movement from the pair during the day, as both the US and Canada release key employment data. In the US, the markets are expecting Nonfarm Employment Change to improve to 231 thousand, while Canadian Employment Change is expected to fall to 5.3 thousand.

There was good news on the US employment front, as jobless claims improved to 297 thousand, practically matching the forecast. We’ll get a look at the official Nonfarm Employment Change report on Friday, with the markets expecting a strong reading of 231 thousand. If the indicator meets expectations, the US dollar could take advantage and post gains.

Earlier in the week, the Bank of Canada held the benchmark interest rate at an even 1.00%, where it has been pegged since September 2010. In a rate statement, the BOC said that while lower oil prices are a serious concern, the economy is in good shape and is showing signs of a broad recovery. The BOC statement gave a boost to the Canadian dollar, which has struggled to stay below the 1.14 line. The Canadian economy has showed signs of improvement, as underscored by the September GDP reading, which came in at 0.4%, marking a four-month high.

USD/CAD for Friday, December 5, 2014

USD/CAD December 5 at 11:50 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1410 H: 1.1418 L: 1.1384

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session. The pair edged higher in the European session and has tested resistance at 1.1414.
• 1.1278 continues to provide strong support.
• On the upside, 1.1414 is under strong pressure. Will this line break? 1.1493 is stronger.
• Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961 and 1.0886
• Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669 and 1.1723

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged on Friday. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar has posted small gains. The ratio remains close to an event split between short and long positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction the pair will take next.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 13:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate 5.3K.
• 13:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 6.6%.
• 13:30 Canadian Trade Balance. Estimate 0.4B.
• 13:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 231K.
• 13:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -41.3B.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.8%.
• 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%.
• 13:30 Canadian Labor Productivity. Estimate -0.1%.
• 13:45 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks.
• 15:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate 0.0%.
• 19:45 US FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks.
• 20:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 16.5B.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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