AUD/USD – Steady on Positive Aussie Data

AUD/USD has posted losses on Thursday, continuing the trend which started the week. The struggling Aussie has lost about 160 points since the start of the week. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading just above the 0.85 line. In Australia Private Capital Expenditure posted a small gain of 0.2% in Q3. HIA New Home Sales, a minor event, climbed 3.0%. US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, so traders can expect light trading during the North American session.

In Australia, Private Capital Expenditure, a key event, easily beat expectations with a gain of 0.2% in Q3.The markets had predicted a fall of 1.7%. Still, this was a much softer reading than the Q2 reading of 1.1%. Earlier in the week, Australian construction data looked awful, as Construction Work Done slipped 2.2% in Q3, worse than the estimate of -1.7%. The weak reading could provide some insight as to what we can expect from Australian GDP next week, as the stagnating construction sector could weigh on economic activity.

The US released a host of key data on Wednesday, but the numbers were weak across-the-board. Unemployment Claims jumped to 313 thousand, its highest level since mid-September. Core Durable Goods Orders declined 0.9%, its third decline in four readings. The estimate stood at 0.5%. New Home Sales fell to a 3-month low, dropping to 458 thousand. This was short of the estimate of 471 thousand. Pending Home Sales was no better, declining by 1.1%, well off the estimate of 0.9%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment, which posted a fourth straight gain, rising to 88.8 points. However, this was short of the estimate of 90.2 points. Despite all the gloomy numbers, the US dollar managed to post gains against the Aussie, thanks to weak Australian construction data.

AUD/USD for Thursday, November 27, 2014

AUD/USD November 27 at 14:50 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8560 L: 0.8616 H: 0.8530

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8315 0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820

 

  • AUD/USD posted strong gains in the Asian session, breaking above resistance at 0.8550. In European trade, the pair retracted. AUD/USD is unchanged early in the North American session.
  • 0.8668 is a strong resistance line.
  • 0.8550 has reverted to a support level. This is a weak line which could see further activity during the day. 0.8456 is stronger.
  • Current range: 0.8550 to 0.8668.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8550, 0.8456, 0.8315, 0.8240 and 0.8150
  • Above: 0.8668, 0.8763, 0.8820 and 0.8953

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday, continuing the direction we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:00 Australian HIA New Home Sales. Actual 3.0%.
  • 00:30 Australian Private Capital Expenditure. Estimate -1.7%. Actual +0.2%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.