EUR/USD – Flat Ahead of Busy Data Day in US

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, German Import Prices declined 0.3%. In the US, there are a host of key events ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. These include Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, UoM Consumer Sentiment and New Homes Sales.

US economic growth continues to rack up impressive numbers, posting an excellent gain of 3.9% in Q3, well above the estimate of 3.3%. This followed a gain in Q2 of 4.2%, which also beat the estimate. This was the strongest two-quarter performance since 2003, and has raised expectations about the Fed raising rates in the first half of 2014. The other key release, Consumer Confidence, was unexpectedly soft, dropping to 88.7 points. This was well off the estimate of 95.9 points.

German confidence indicators continue to point upwards. Ifo Business Climate rose to 104.7 points in November. Importantly, this reading snapped a streak of six straight declines. ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped 11.5 points, crushing the estimate of 0.9 points. This strong optimism is somewhat puzzling, given that inflation and growth levels in the Eurozone’s largest economy remain weak. At the same time, increasing confidence in the German economy could translate into stronger German numbers, which would help boost the ailing Eurozone.

EUR/USD for Wednesday, November 26, 2014

EUR/USD November 26 9:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2447 H: 1.2495 L: 1.2444

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806

 

  • EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has edged lower in European trade.
  • 1.2518 is the next resistance line.
  • 1.2407 remains a weak support level. 1.2286 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143 and 1.2042
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806, 1.2905 and 1.2995

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small losses. The pair has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 German Import Prices. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -0.3%.
  • Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 287K.
  • 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%.
  • 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -0.4%.
  • 13:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%.
  • 13:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%.
  • 14:45 Chicago PMI. Estimate 63.1 points.
  • 14:55 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 90.2 points.
  • 14:55 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
  • 15:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 471K.
  • 15:00 US New Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.9%.
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.4M.
  • 15:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -145B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.