USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Gains as Retail Sales Improves

The Canadian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday, as the currency recovered from Monday’s losses. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading in the mid-1.12 range. On the release front, Canadian Core Retail Sales improved to 0.0% and Retail Sales climbed 0.8%. In the US, GDP jumped 3.9% in Q3, beating expectations. However, CB Consumer Confidence slipped to 88.7 points.

On Tuesday, Canadian Core Retail Sales improved to 0.0% in the September release. Although this was shy of the estimate of 0.4%, the indicator snapped a streak of two declines. Canadian Retail Sales was sharp, posting a 0.8% gain. This beat the estimate of 0.6%, and came after two consecutive declines. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, a key engine of economic growth.

US economic growth continues to rack up impressive numbers, posting an excellent gain of 3.9% in Q3, well above the estimate of 3.3%. This followed a gain in Q2 of 4.2%, which also beat the estimate. The other key release, Consumer Confidence, was unexpectedly soft, dropping to 88.7 points. This was well off the estimate of 95.9 points.

USD/CAD for Tuesday, November 25, 2014

USD/CAD November 25 at 16:00 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1253 H: 1.1317 L: 1.1233

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0961 1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493

 

  • USD/CAD was uneventful in Asian trade. The pair has lost ground in the European and North American sessions.
  • 1.1124 is providing strong support.
  • On the upside, 1.1278 was tested earlier and is a weak resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.1124 to 1.1278

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961 and 1.0886
  • Above: 1.1278, 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669 and 1.1723

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Tuesday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar has posted gains. The ratio remains close to an event split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD will take.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 Canadian Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.0%.
  • 13:30 Canadian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.8%.
  • 13:30 Canadian Corporate Profits. Actual 3.7%.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 3.3%. Actual 3.9%.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.3%. Actual 1.4%.
  • 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.0%.
  • 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 4.7%. Actual 4.9%.
  • 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 95.9 points. Actual 88.7 points.
  • 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 17 points. Actual 4 points.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.