EUR/USD – Little Change Ahead of US GDP

EUR/USD is very quiet on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, German GDP posted a weak gain of 0.1%, matching the forecast. In the US, there are two key events on the schedule – Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence.

All eyes are on US GDP for Q3, which will be released later on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a strong gain of 3.3%. This is not as strong as the Q2 release, which posted a gain of 4.2%. If the indicator meets or exceeds expectations, we could see the US dollar post gains in the North American session.

The euro hasn’t had much to cheer about lately, and the currency took a tumble on Friday, losing over 150 points. This was a result of remarks from ECB head Mario Draghi, who warned that that inflation expectations were declining to levels that were very low and said the ECB is ready to expand its stimulus program. Deep interest rate cuts haven’t boosted growth or inflation, so the ECB has reached deeper into its toolbox and purchased covered bonds and asset-backed securities. So far, these purchases have been from the private sector, but the ECB could decide to expand these purchases to government bonds, known has quantitative easing (QE). However, there is strong resistance to QE from national central banks, such as the powerful German Bundesbank.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, November 25, 2014

EUR/USD November 25 9:05 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2434 H: 1.2444 L: 1.2416

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806

 

  • EUR/USD has showed little movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair touched a high of 1.2444 early in the European session.
  • 1.2518 is a strong resistance line.
  • 1.2407 is a weak support level. 1.2286 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143 and 1.2042
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806, 1.2905 and 1.2995

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is close to a split of long and short positions. This is indicative of a lack of trader bias with regard to what direction to expect from the pair.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 German Final GDP. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 9:00 Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -0.1%.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 3.3%.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index.  Estimate 1.3%.
  • 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 4.7%.
  • 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 95.9 points.
  • 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 17 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.