AUD/USD – Aussie Softens Ahead of RBA Minutes

AUD/USD has posted slight losses on Monday, as the pair trades at the 0.87 line. Taking a look at today’s releases, Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales disappointed with a decline of 1.6%. Later in the day, Australia releases the CB Leading Index. In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a strong improvement in November, with a reading of 10.2 points.

US consumer indicators looked strong on Friday. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales both posted gains of 0.3%, edging above the estimate of 0.2%. UoM Consumer Sentiment continued its upward trend, climbing to 89.7 points in November. This was the indicator’s strongest performance since July 2007. Meanwhile, US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M.

Australian data started the week off on a disappointing note, as New Motor Vehicle Sales, an important consumer indicator, declined by 1.6%. Last week, Inflation Expectations gained 4.1%. This was the indicator’s best showing since April. Confidence indicators were a mix. Westpac Consumer Sentiment gained 1.9% last month, a second straight gain. This was the indicator’s highest gain since July. NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 points, as the key indicator has softened for a third straight month.

AUD/USD for Monday, November 17, 2014

AUD/USD November 17 at 15:15 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8704 H: 0.8796 L: 0.8703

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953

 

  • AUD/USD posted gains in the Asian session, testing resistance at 0.8763. The pair then reversed directions and continued moving lower in European trade. The Australian dollar remains under pressure early in the North American session.
  • 0.8763 is an immediate resistance line. 0.8820 is stronger.
  • 0.8668 is the next support level. 0.8550 is next.
  • Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456, 0.8315 and 0.8240
  • Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953 and 0.9020

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is unchanged on Monday. This is not consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD reversing directions and gaining ground.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales. Actual -1.6%.
  • 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 12.1 points. Actual 10.2 points.
  • 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 79.3%. Actual 78.9%.
  • 14:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -0.1%.
  • 23:00 Australian CB Leading Index.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.