GBP/USD – Improving Dollar Shrugs off Weak US Job Numbers

GBP/USD continues to lose ground on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.57 range in the North American range. There are no major releases out of the UK today. In the US Unemployment Claims disappointed, climbing to 290 thousand. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slipped to 4.74M. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a conference in Washington hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.

US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some strong movement from GBP/USD.

The pound took a tumble on Wednesday, giving up over 100 points to the US dollar. The pound reacted sharply to the BoE Inflation report, which is released each quarter. The report said that inflation is unlikely to hit the 2% target before 2017, and could drop below 1% in the next six months. The BoE blamed low inflation on weak commodity prices and a slowdown in the global economy. The Bank maintained its growth forecast for 2014 at 3.5%, but lowered the 2015 forecast from 3.1% to 2.9%. Meanwhile, Claimant Count Change fell by 20.4 thousand, but this was short of the estimate of a decline of 24.9 thousand. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.0%, missing the estimate of 5.9%.

 

GBP/USD for Thursday, November 13, 2014

GBP/USD November 13 at 16:55 GMT

GBP/USD 1.5724 H: 1.5781 L: 1.5724

 

GBP/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.5505 1.5644 1.5717 1.5864 1.6000 1.6141

 

  • GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted lost ground in the European session and this has continued in North American trade.
  • 1.5717 is under strong pressure as the pound has lost ground.
  • 1.5864 is a strong resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.5717 to 1.5864

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.5717, 1.5644, 1.5505 and 1.5392
  • Above: 1.5864, 1.6000, 1.6141, 1.6263 and 1.638

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Thursday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the dollar continues to post gains. The ratio is pointing to a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the pound reversing direction and moving higher.

 

GBP/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:01 British RICS House Price Balance. Estimate 25%. Actual 20%.
  • 10:35 British 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 2.21%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282K. Actual 290K.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.81M. Actual 4.74M.
  • 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M. Actual -1.7M.
  • 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 17:45 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -111.5B.
  • 20:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.