EUR/USD – Limited Movement Ahead of US Employment Data

It’s been a quiet week for EUR/USD and this lack of activity continues on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, French CPI came in at a flat 0.0%, while German CPI slipped to -0.3%. In the US, we’ll get a look at key employment data, with the release of Unemployment Claims and  JOLTS Job Openings. In Washington, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a conference hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.

Eurozone inflation levels remain at rock-bottom levels, and there was more bad news from Germany and France, the Eurozone’s two largest economies. German Final CPI declined 0.3%, its worst showing since January. This matched the forecast, so the markets were braced for a weak reading. In France, CPI improved to 0.0%, edging above the estimate of -0.1%. The index has managed just one gain since March, as the French economy continues to struggle. On Wednesday, German Wholesale Price Index declined for the second time in three readings, coming in at -0.6%. This was well short of the estimate of +0.2%, and was the index’s steepest decline since November 2013.

We’ll get a look at the first major US release of the week on Thursday, with the release of Unemployment Claims. Last week’s reading of 278 thousand beat the estimate, and the four-week averages, which are more reliable indicators, remain at multi-year lows. The upcoming estimate stands at 282 thousand. The US will also release JOLT Job Openings, an important indicator. The markets are expecting a slight softening in the September reading, with a forecast of 4.81M.

EUR/USD for Thursday, November 13, 2014

EUR/USD November 13 10:20 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2469 H: 1.2472 L: 1.2428

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806

 

  • EUR/USD edged upwards in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.
  • On the downside, 1.2407 remains a weak support line. 1.2286 is next. This line has remained intact since August 2012.
  • 1.2518 is an immediate resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143, 1.2042 and 1.1875
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806 and 1.2905

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio is almost an even split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 German Final CPI. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -0.3%.
  • 7:45 French CPI. Estimate -0.1%. Actual 0.0%.
  • 9:00 ECB Monthly Bulletin.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282K.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.81M.
  • 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.
  • 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 17:45 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -111.5B.
  • 20:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.