AUD/USD – Aussie Rally Continues as US Job Data Softens

AUD/USD has posted slight gains on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.87 range. Taking a look at today’s releases, Australian MI Inflation Expectations posted a strong gain of 4.1%. In the US, Unemployment Claims disappointed, climbing to 290 thousand. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slipped to 4.74M. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a conference in Washington hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.

US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some stronger movement from AUD/USD.

Australian Inflation Expectations looked strong last month, posting a sharp gain of 4.1%. This was the indicator’s best showing since April. Earlier in the week, Westpac Consumer Sentiment gained 1.9% last month, a second straight gain. This was the indicator’s highest gain since July. NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 points, as the key indicator has softened for a third straight month. The Australian dollar has shown strong improvement, gaining close to 200 points in little over a week.

AUD/USD for Thursday, November 13, 2014

AUD/USD November 13 at 15:05 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8738 H: 0.8764 L: 0.8672

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953

 

  • AUD/USD is showing some volatility on Thursday. The pair was choppy in Asian trading. In the European session, the pair tested resistance at 0.8763.
  • 0.8763 is a weak resistance line. 0.8820 is stronger.
  • 0.8668 is the next support level.
  • Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456, 0.8315 and 0.8240
  • Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953 and 0.9020

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Thursday. This is not consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar continues to post gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD continuing to move higher.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:00 Australian MI Inflation Expectations. Actual 4.1%.
  • 1:30 RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282K. Actual 290K.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.81M. Actual 4.74M.
  • 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.
  • 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 17:45 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -111.5B.
  • 20:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.