USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Improves to 1.13

The Canadian dollar has posted modest gains on Wednesday, continuing the trend we saw a day earlier. In the North American session, the pair is trading at the 1.13 line. It’s a quiet day on the release front, with no major releases out of Canada or the US.

Canadian numbers started off the week on a disappointing note, as Housing Starts slipped to 184 thousand last month, well off expectations. The news was much better late last week, as employment data sparkled. Employment Change posted a solid gain of 43.1 thousand, crushing the estimate of -3.9 thousand. The unemployment rate surprised with a sharp drop, improving from 6.8% to 6.5%. This is the lowest rate we’ve seen since December 2008. The struggling Canadian dollar has shown some improvement, gaining over 100 points since Friday.

Employment numbers have been strong in the US, and this played a major role in the Fed decision to wind up QE last week. However, US Nonfarm Payrolls, the most important employment indicator, disappointed on Friday. The indicator slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 12, 2014

USD/CAD November 12 at 16:00 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1304 H: 1.1359 L: 1.1281

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD has posted losses since late in the Asian session, as the US dollar remains under pressure.
• 1.1278 is providing weak support. Will the improving Canadian dollar break below this line?
• On the upside, 1.1414 has strengthened as the Canadian dollar continues to gain ground.
• Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
• Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged on Wednesday. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar has posted modest gains. The ratio currently has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to move to higher ground.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 8:00 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
• 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
• 17:00 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
• 16:25 BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks.
• 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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