AUD/USD – Steady as Consumer Sentiment Jumps

AUD/USD has posted slight gains on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.87 range. Taking a look at today’s releases, Westpac Consumer Sentiment looked sharp with a gain of 1.9%.  The Wage Price Index posted a gain of 0.6%, matching the forecast. There are no major releases out of the US until Thursday.

In Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment gained 1.9% last month, a second straight gain. This was the indicator’s highest gain since July. On Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 points, as the key indicator has softened for a third straight month. Meanwhile, Chinese CPI posted a gain of 1.6%, unchanged from the previous release. The Australian dollar is sensitive to Chinese key events, as the Asian giant is Australia’s number one trading partner.

Employment numbers have been strong in the US, and this played a major role in the Fed decision to wind up QE last week. However, US Nonfarm Payrolls, the most important employment indicator, disappointed on Friday. The indicator slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, November 12, 2014

AUD/USD November 12 at 15:25 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8737 H: 0.8738 L: 0.8665

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953

 

  • AUD/USD tested support at 0.8668 in the Asian session. The pair has been uneventful in the European and North American sessions.
  • 0.8763 is a weak resistance line. 0.8820 is stronger.
  • 0.8668 was tested earlier but remains a strong support level.
  • Current range: 0.8550 to 0.8668.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456, 0.8315 and 0.8240
  • Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953 and 0.9020

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is unchanged on Wednesday. This is not consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted modest gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD continuing to move higher.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian Wage Price Index. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%.
  • 8:00 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 17:00 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.